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2009年02 期
| 標(biāo)題 |
| 考慮隨機(jī)波動(dòng)影響的區(qū)域貨物周轉(zhuǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)(31 卷) |
| 英文標(biāo)題 |
| Forecast Regional Freight Ton-kilometers Considering Influence of Stochastic Fluctuation |
| 摘要 |
| 基于區(qū)域貨物周轉(zhuǎn)量由發(fā)展趨勢(shì)值與隨機(jī)波動(dòng)值兩部分組成。首先建立灰色GM（1，1）模型預(yù)測(cè)區(qū)域貨物周轉(zhuǎn)量發(fā)展趨勢(shì)值;再以樣本數(shù)據(jù)與預(yù)測(cè)發(fā)展趨勢(shì)值兩者之差計(jì)算隨機(jī)波動(dòng)值，并以隨機(jī)波動(dòng)值與發(fā)展趨勢(shì)值的比率作為劃分隨機(jī)波動(dòng)狀態(tài)的指標(biāo);利用馬爾可夫鏈確定隨機(jī)波動(dòng)值狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn) |
| 作者 |
| 新聞作者:劉穎恒，方曉平，辛黎光，張晉莉 |
| 關(guān)鍵字 |
